Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation
Australian National University · ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science · +1 more institution
Abstract
Abstract Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological drought for two emissions scenarios to 2100. We find robust projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over >45% of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24% of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalized increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 30.81
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 45
Authors
5- AUAnna UkkolaCorresponding
Australian National University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
- MGMartin G. De Kauwe
UNSW Sydney, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
- MLMichael L. Roderick
Australian National University, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
- GAGab Abramowitz
UNSW Sydney, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
- AJA. J. Pitman
UNSW Sydney, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
Topics & keywords
- Coupled model intercomparison project
- Precipitation
- Environmental science
- Climatology
- Climate model
- Climate change
- Atmospheric sciences
- Meteorology