CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Los Alamos National Laboratory · University of Washington · +4 more institutions
Abstract
Abstract We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850–2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980s. Ensemble mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 25.17
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 194
Authors
5- WWWilbert WeijerCorresponding
Los Alamos National Laboratory
- WCWei Cheng
University of Washington, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Sphere Institute
- OAOluwayemi A. Garuba
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
- AHAixue Hu
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
- BNBalasubramanya Nadiga
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Topics & keywords
- Climatology
- Zonal and meridional
- General Circulation Model
- Coupled model intercomparison project
- Circulation (fluid dynamics)
- Geology
- Climate change
- Oceanography
- Life below water