Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups-in particular between the "young", "the middle-aged" and the "old".Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy.For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter lockdown policies on the oldest group.Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the most vulnerable group both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups.We also…