Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK. Methods We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 664 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern…

• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

  Awards: OPP1183986, OPP1184344, OPP1180644, 757699, OPP1191821, INV-003174
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: 206250, 210758/Z/18/Z, 206250/Z/17/Z, Z/17/Z, 208812, 210758, 208812/Z/17/Z
• AT
  Alan Turing Institute
• GO
  Government of the United Kingdom
• GC
  Global Challenges Research Fund
• NI
  National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research

  Awards: ITCRZ 03010, PR-OD-1017-20002, 16/137/109, HPRU-2012-10096
• DO
  Department of Health and Social Care

  Awards: OPP1184344, ITCRZ 03010
• DF
  Department for International Development, UK Government

  Awards: MR/P014658/1, PR-OD-1017-20002
• RC
  Research Councils UK

  Awards: MR/S003975/1, ES/P010873/1
• DF
  Department for International Development
• HN
  Heiwa Nakajima Foundation
• WW
  Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster
• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Awards: MR/S003975/1, 206250/Z/17/Z, MC_PC 19065, MR/P014658/1, MR/P014658/1
• EA
  Economic and Social Research Council

  Awards: INV-003174, ES/P010873/1