Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children1–4. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70…

• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

  Awards: 757699, INV-003174
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: 206250, 210758/Z/18/Z, 206250/Z/17/Z, Z/17/Z, 208812, 210758, 208812/Z/17/Z
• GO
  Government of the United Kingdom
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research

  Awards: ITCRZ 03010, PR-OD-1017-20002, 16/137/109, HPRU-2012-10096
• DO
  Department of Health and Social Care

  Award: ITCRZ 03010
• RS
  Royal Society

  Awards: 208812, RP\EA\180004, Z/17/Z, 206250/Z/17/Z, 208812/Z/17/Z, 180004
• RC
  Research Councils UK

  Awards: MR/S003975/1, ES/P010873/1
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Award: COVID-19
• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Awards: MR/S003975/1, 206250/Z/17/Z, MC_PC 19065, MR/S003975/1, COVID-19
• EA
  Economic and Social Research Council

  Award: ES/P010873/1