The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit. Mitigation strategies that slow but do not interrupt transmission will still lead to COVID-19 epidemics rapidly overwhelming health systems, with substantial excess deaths in lower-income countries resulting from the poorer health care available. Of countries…

• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Award: 221350/Z/20/Z
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research
• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Awards: MR/R015600/1, MC_PC_19012, MR/R024855/1