A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2

Heterogeneity and herd immunity In response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), some politicians have been keen to exploit the idea of achieving herd immunity. Countering this possibility are estimates derived from work on historical vaccination studies, which suggest that herd immunity may only be achieved at an unacceptable cost of lives. Because human populations are far from homogeneous, Britton et al. show that by introducing age and activity heterogeneities into population models for SARS-CoV-2, herd immunity can be achieved at a population-wide infection rate of ∼40%, considerably lower than previous estimates. This shift is because transmission and immunity are concentrated…

• SF
  Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas

  Award: 2015-05015
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  Vetenskapsrådet

  Award: 2016-04566