The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks

Moghadas, Seyed M.; Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.; Sah, Pratha; Pandey, Abhishek; Shoukat, Affan; Singer, Burton H.; Galvani, Alison P.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2008373117

articleProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesJul 6, 2020HYBRID OA

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks

SMSeyed M. Moghadas MCMeagan C. Fitzpatrick PSPratha Sah APAbhishek Pandey ASAffan Shoukat

York University · University of Maryland, Baltimore · +2 more institutions

PubMed

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Abstract

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections.…

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Topics & keywords

Topics

Keywords

Asymptomatic
Outbreak
Contact tracing
Transmission (telecommunications)
Isolation (microbiology)
Medicine
Population
Pandemic

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