reviewReviews of GeophysicsJul 22, 2020BRONZE OA

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

SCSteven C. SherwoodMJMark J. WebbJDJ. D. AnnanKCKyle C. ArmourPFPiers Forster

UNSW Sydney · ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science · +25 more institutions

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Abstract

Abstract We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Sensitivity (control systems)
  • Environmental science
  • Geology
  • Remote sensing
  • Climate sensitivity
  • Meteorology
  • Climatology
  • Climate change
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Climate action
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