Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6-10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of…

• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/N005309/1, NE/R016429/1
• UG
  U.S. Geological Survey
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/R016429/1, NE/R016429, NE/R016429/1, NE/N005309/1, R016429/1
• KE
  Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute

  Award: 2019002820004