articleGlobal Change BiologyOct 1, 2020HYBRID OA

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

HSHanno SeebensSBSven BacherTMTim M. BlackburnCCCésar CapinhaWDWayne Dawson

Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre · University of Fribourg · +23 more institutions

PubMed
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Abstract

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach,…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Alien
  • Ecology
  • Taxon
  • Alien species
  • Temperate climate
  • Global biodiversity
  • Introduced species
  • Geography
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Life in Land
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