Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States
University of Washington · Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · +6 more institutions
Abstract
We use COVID-19 case and mortality data from 1 February 2020 to 21 September 2020 and a deterministic SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered) compartmental framework to model possible trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States at the state level from 22 September 2020 through 28 February 2021. Using this SEIR model, and projections of critical driving covariates (pneumonia seasonality, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita), we assessed scenarios of social distancing mandates and levels of mask use. Projections of current non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies by…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 17.57
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 54
Authors
91- ICIHME COVID-19 Forecasting TeamCorresponding
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- RCRobert C. Reiner
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- RMRyan M Barber
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- JKJames K. Collins
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- PZPeng Zheng
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Topics & keywords
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
- 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
- Betacoronavirus
- Virology
- Pandemic
- Coronavirus Infections
- Medicine
- Good health and well-being