Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study

Abstract Objective To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. Design Population based cohort study. Setting and participants QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. Main outcome measures The…

• C
  Celgene
• NB
  NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust/Institute of Cancer Research
• I
  Incyte
• CR
  Cancer Research UK
• NI
  National Institute for Health and Care Research
• IC
  Imperial College London
• UO
  University of Oxford
• PH
  Public Health England
• MR
  Medical Research Council

  Awards: MR/K006584/1, MR/M501633/2, MC_PC_13041
• EA
  Economic and Social Research Council

  Award: ES/S007393/1
• NL
  NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre