Regional and global contributions of air pollution to risk of death from COVID-19

The risk of mortality from the coronavirus disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19) is increased by comorbidity from cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases. Air pollution also causes excess mortality from these conditions. Analysis of the first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-1) outcomes in 2003, and preliminary investigations of those for SARS-CoV-2 since 2019, provide evidence that the incidence and severity are related to ambient air pollution. We estimated the fraction of COVID-19 mortality that is attributable to the long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate air pollution. METHODS AND RESULTS: We characterized global exposure to fine particulates based on satellite data, and calculated the anthropogenic fraction with an atmospheric chemistry model. The degree to which air pollution influences COVID-19 mortality was derived from epidemiological data in the USA and China. We estimate that particulate air pollution contributed ∼15% (95% confidence interval 7-33%) to COVID-19 mortality worldwide, 27% (13 - 46%) in East Asia, 19% (8-41%) in Europe, and 17% (6-39%) in North America. Globally, ∼50-60% of the attributable, anthropogenic fraction is related to fossil fuel use, up to 70-80% in Europe, West Asia, and North America.

Our results suggest that air pollution is an important cofactor increasing the risk of mortality from COVID-19. This provides extra motivation for combining ambitious policies to reduce air pollution with measures to control the transmission of COVID-19.