Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Brauner, Jan; Mindermann, Sören; Sharma, Mrinank; Johnston, David; Salvatier, John; Gavenčiak, Tomáš; Stephenson, Anna B.; Leech, Gavin; Altman, George; Mikulik, Vladimir; Norman, Alexander John; Monrad, Joshua Teperowski; Besiroglu, Tamay; Ge, Hong; Hartwick, Meghan A.; Teh, Yee Whye; Chindelevitch, Leonid; Gal, Yarin; Kulveit, Jan

doi:10.1126/science.abd9338

articleScienceDec 16, 2020HYBRID OA

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

JBJan Brauner SMSören Mindermann MSMrinank Sharma DJDavid Johnston JSJohn Salvatier

University of Oxford · Australian National University · +11 more institutions

PubMed

Indexed incrossrefpubmed

Abstract

Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational…

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1,119

total citations

FWCI: 31.01
Percentile: 100%
References: 70

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Authors

19

Topics & keywords

Topics

Keywords

Psychological intervention
Closing (real estate)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Transmission (telecommunications)
Pandemic
Limiting
Government (linguistics)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Good health and well-being

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