Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using Rt to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of Rt from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic. The purpose of this document is to summarize these challenges, illustrate them with examples from synthetic data, and, where possible, make recommendations. For near real-time estimation of Rt, we recommend the approach of Cori and colleagues, which uses data…

• UD
  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

  Award: HHSN272201400005C
• JS
  James S. McDonnell Foundation
• UO
  University of Chicago
• WT
  Wellcome Trust

  Awards: 210758/Z/18/Z, 210758, U54GM088558
• NI
  National Institutes of Health

  Awards: HHSN272201400005C, R01 GM122876, U54GM088558, GM122876
• NI
  National Institute of General Medical Sciences

  Awards: U54GM088558, F32GM134721
• NI
  National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

  Awards: CEIRS Contract No. HHSN272201400005C, U54GM088558, HHSN272201400005C