preprintmedRxivDec 26, 2020GREEN OA

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

NGNicholas G. DaviesSASam AbbottRCRosanna C. BarnardCJChristopher JarvisAJAdam J. Kucharski

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · KU Leuven · +2 more institutions

Indexed incrossrefdatacite

Abstract

A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in November 2020 and is rapidly spreading towards fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modelling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43–90% (range of 95% credible intervals 38–130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine roll-out, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths across England in 2021 will exceed those in 2020. Concerningly, VOC…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Transmissibility (structural dynamics)
  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
  • Lineage (genetic)
  • Transmission (telecommunications)
  • 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
  • Geography
  • New england
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Good health and well-being
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