Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

Abstract A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45–62% electrification rate, 47–78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2–7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5–2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64–1,649 MtCO 2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission…

• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Awards: 2018YFC1509006, 51861135102, 71690243
• MO
  Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China

  Awards: 71690243, 2018YFC1509006, 51861135102