Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990–2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality from birth defects worldwide. We report an overview of trends in CHD mortality in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort.

Cause-specific CHD mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We utilised an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 0 to 4 to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. This approach allows for the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in the mortality trends, with the potential to identify disparities and treatment gaps in cardiac care.