Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene

Abstract Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on…

• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Award: NE/V017756/1
• UO
  University of California, Davis
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/V017756/1, NE/V017756/1