Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030

Abstract Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM 2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of…

• HT
  Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
• HG
  Harvard Global Institute
• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Award: 71974092
• NU
  Nanjing University
• NK
  National Key Research and Development Program of China

  Award: 2016YFA0600204
• FR
  Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

  Awards: 0207-14380055, 0207-14380174
• PN
  Pacific Northwest National Laboratory