The Politics of Uncertainty

Abstract Electoral authoritarian regimes practice authoritarianism behind the institutional facades of representative democracy. They hold multiparty elections, yet violate democratic minimum standards in systematic and profound ways. Today, they have turned into the most common form of dictatorship in the world. The Politics of Uncertainty studies their internal dynamic. Grounded in a general theory of authoritarianism, it develops a theory of regime struggles under electoral authoritarianism. Both revolve around the politics of uncertainty. All authoritarian governments, the theory posits, suffer from two forms of uncertainty. They suffer from institutional uncertainties: their hold on power is never secure.…