Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China

Having adopted a dynamic zero-COVID strategy to respond to SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility since August 2021, China is now considering whether, and for how long, this policy can remain in place. The debate has thus shifted towards the identification of mitigation strategies for minimizing disruption to the healthcare system in the case of a nationwide epidemic. To this aim, we developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, to project COVID-19 burden (that is, number of cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive…

• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Award: 82130093
• NI
  National Institutes of Health
• KP
  Key Programme

  Award: 82130093
• LK
  Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong