Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness

Repeated emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with increased fitness underscores the value of rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. We have developed PyR 0 , a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR 0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many nonspike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR 0 forecasts…