Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

Abstract Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers’ decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986-2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then…

• NA
  National Aeronautics and Space Administration
• US
  United States Agency for International Development
• BA
  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
• OP
  Open Philanthropy Project
• BF
  Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
• CO
  Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers
• GI
  Goddard Institute for Space Studies