articleScienceJan 5, 2023GREEN OA

Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

DRDavid R. RounceRHRegine HockFMFabien MaussionRHRomain HugonnetWKWilliam Kochtitzky

University of Alaska Fairbanks · Carnegie Mellon University · +16 more institutions

PubMed
Indexed incrossrefpubmed

Abstract

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Glacier
  • Deglaciation
  • Climate change
  • Sea level rise
  • Global warming
  • Global change
  • Physical geography
  • Sea level
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Life below water
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