Projected rapid growth in diabetes disease burden and economic burden in China: a spatio-temporal study from 2020 to 2030

This study projects the trend of disease burden and economic burden of diabetes in 33 Chinese provinces and nationally during 2020-2030 and investigates its spatial disparities.

Time series prediction on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates of diabetes was conducted using a Bayesian modelling approach in 2020-2030. The top-down method and the human capital method were used to predict the direct and indirect costs of diabetes for each Chinese province. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to identify geographic clusters of low-or high-burden areas.