Projections and Epidemiology of Primary Hip and Knee Arthroplasty in Medicare Patients to 2040-2060

The present study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare/Medicaid Part B National Summary and combined procedure counts with use of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes to identify whether the procedure was a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedure. In 2019, the annual volume of primary TKA was 480,958 and that of primary THA was 262,369. These values formed a baseline from which we generated point forecasts for 2020-2060 and 95% forecast intervals (FIs).

Between 2000 and 2019, the estimated annual volume of THA increased by 177% and that of TKA increased by 156% on average. Regression analysis projected an annual growth rate of 5.2% for THA and 4.44% for TKA. Based on these yearly projected increases, an estimated increase of 28.84% and 24.28% is expected for each 5-year period after 2020 for THA and TKA, respectively. By 2040, the number of THAs is projected to be 719,364 (95% FI, 624,766 to 828,286) and the number of TKA is projected to be 1,222,988 (95% FI, 988,714 to 1,512,772). By 2060, the number of THAs is projected to be 1,982,099 (95% FI, 1,624,215 to 2,418,839) and the number of TKAs is projected to be 2,917,959 (95% FI, 2,160,951 to 3,940,156). In 2019, Medicare data showed that THA constituted approximately 35% of TJA procedures performed.