Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Philip, Sjoukje; Kreienkamp, Frank; Kew, Sarah; Lorenz, Philip; Arrighi, Julie; Bettmann, Thomas; Caluwaerts, Steven; Chan, Steven; Cruz, Lesley De; Vries, Hylke de; Demuth, Norbert; Ferrone, Andrew; Fischer, Erich; Fowler, Hayley J.; Goergen, Klaus; Heinrich, Dorothy; Henrichs, Yvonne; Kaspar, Frank; Lenderink, Geert; Nilson, Enno; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Ragone, Francesco; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Singh, Roop; Skålevåg, Amalie; Termonia, Piet; Thalheimer, Lisa; Aalst, Maarten van; Bergh, Joris Van den; Vyver, Hans Van de; Vannitsem, Stéphane; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Schaeybroeck, Bert Van; Vautard, Robert; Vonk, Demi; Wanders, Niko

doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7

articleClimatic ChangeJun 29, 2023HYBRID OA

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

JSJordis S. Tradowsky SPSjoukje Philip FKFrank Kreienkamp SKSarah Kew PLPhilip Lorenz

Deutscher Wetterdienst · Bodeker Scientific (New Zealand) · +23 more institutions

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Abstract

Abstract In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in…

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Topics

Keywords

Context (archaeology)
Environmental science
Flooding (psychology)
Climatology
Climate change
Magnitude (astronomy)
Climate model
Geography

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Climate action

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