Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems

Abstract Climate change modulates both energy demand and wind and solar energy supply but a globally synthetic analysis of supply–demand match (SDM) is lacking. Here, we use 12 state-of-the-art climate models to assess climate change impacts on SDM, quantified by the fraction of demand met by local wind or solar supply. For energy systems with varying dependence on wind or solar supply, up to 32% or 44% of non-Antarctic land areas, respectively, are projected to experience robust SDM reductions by the end of this century under an intermediate emission scenario. Smaller and more variable supply reduces SDM at northern middle-to-high latitudes, whereas reduced heating demand alleviates or reverses SDM reductions…

• CF
  ClimateWorks Foundation
• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Awards: 42230506, 71991484, 2019QZKK1001
• CS
  China Scholarship Council

  Award: 201806010309