An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO 2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of…

• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Awards: 42041005, 2016YFC0501804, U2243203, 2019QZKK0304, 2019QZKK0304-02
• UG
  U.S. Geological Survey