Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Imperial College London · International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis · +3 more institutions
Abstract
Abstract The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO 2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO 2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO 2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around…
Citation impact
- FWCI
- 33.57
- Percentile
- 100%
- References
- 42
Authors
6- RLRobin LambollCorresponding
Imperial College London
- ZNZebedee Nicholls
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, The University of Melbourne
- CSChris Smith
Met Office, University of Leeds, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- JKJarmo Kikstra
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Imperial College London
- EBEdward Byers
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Topics & keywords
- Robustness (evolution)
- Environmental science
- Global warming
- Climate change
- Climatology
- Econometrics
- Atmospheric sciences
- Natural resource economics
Funding
- SRSight Research UKAward: NE/T009381/1
- ECEuropean CommissionAwards: 821471, 820829, 101003536, ESM2025, 951542
- IIInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- H2Horizon 2020 Framework ProgrammeAwards: 820829, 821471, ESM2025, 101003536
- NENatural Environment Research CouncilAwards: NE/T009381/1, NE/T009381/1
- ESEuropean Social Fund