Global spatially explicit yield gap time trends reveal regions at risk of future crop yield stagnation

Yield gaps, here defined as the difference between actual and attainable yields, provide a framework for assessing opportunities to increase agricultural productivity. Previous global assessments, centred on a single year, were unable to identify temporal variation. Here we provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive analysis of yield gaps for ten major crops from 1975 to 2010. Yield gaps have widened steadily over most areas for the eight annual crops and remained static for sugar cane and oil palm. We developed a three-category typology to differentiate regions of 'steady growth' in actual and attainable yields, 'stalled floor' where yield is stagnated and 'ceiling pressure' where yield gaps are…

• NS
  National Science Foundation

  Awards: 2021898, NSF-DBI-2021898, DBI-2021898
• US
  United States Agency for International Development

  Awards: A20-OAA-L-14-00006, AID-OAA-L-14-00006, OAA-L-14-00006
• GA
  Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

  Award: NE/M021327/1
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Award: NE/M021327/1
• AN
  Agence Nationale de la Recherche

  Awards: ANR 16-CONV-0003, 16-CONV-0003
• IN
  Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement
• IO
  Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota
• MA
  Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Award: NE/M021327/1