Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

Abstract The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1–3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as…

• PU
  Princeton University
• UR
  UK Research and Innovation

  Awards: NE/V021346/1, 2018-1
• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/V021346/1, NE/Y003942/1
• EC
  European Commission

  Awards: 956170, 758873, 820970
• MO
  Met Office
• VF
  Volkswagen Foundation

  Award: 956170
• FD
  Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

  Awards: 2014/50848-, 2019/, 2014/, 2014/50848-9, 88887, 2019/07773-1
• CD
  Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

  Award: 88887
• BF
  Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

  Award: 01LS2001A
• NO
  Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek

  Award: VI.Veni.202.170
• MD
  Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação
• CN
  Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

  Awards: 465501/2014-, 2014-1, 309074/2021-5, 465501/2014-1, 159440/2018-1
• IS
  Instituto Serrapilheira

  Awards: Serra-1709-18983, 1709-18983
• FC
  Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/V021346/1, NE/V021346/1, NE/Y003942/1