Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Pereira, Henrique M.; Martins, Inês S.; Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Kim, Hyejin; Leadley, Paul; Popp, Alexander; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Hurtt, G. C.; Quoß, Luise; Arneth, Almut; Baisero, Daniele; Bakkenes, Michel; Chaplin‐Kramer, Rebecca; Chini, Louise; Marco, Moreno Di; Ferrier, Simon; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guerra, Carlos A.; Harfoot, Michael; Harwood, Thomas D.; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Haverd, Vanessa; Havlík, Peter; Hellweg, Stefanie; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Hirata, Akiko; Hoskins, Andrew J.; Humpenöder, Florian; Janse, Jan H.; Jetz, Walter; Johnson, Justin A.; Krause, Andreas; Leclère, David; Matsui, Tetsuya; Meijer, Johan R.; Merow, Cory; Obersteiner, Michael; Ohashi, Haruka; Palma, Adriana De; Poulter, Benjamin; Purvis, Andy; Quesada, Benjamín; Rondinini, Carlo; Schipper, Aafke M.; Settele, Josef; Sharp, Richard; Stehfest, Elke; Strassburg, Bernardo B. N.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Talluto, Lauren; Thuiller, Wilfried; Titeux, Nicolas; Visconti, Piero; Ware, Christopher; Wolf, Florian; Alkemade, Rob

doi:10.1126/science.adn3441

articleScienceApr 25, 2024GREEN OA

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

HMHenrique M. Pereira ISInês S. Martins IMIsabel M.D. Rosa HKHyejin Kim PLPaul Leadley

Universidade do Porto · German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research · +54 more institutions

PubMed

Indexed incrossrefpubmed

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase,…

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Topics & keywords

Topics

Keywords

Biodiversity
Ecosystem services
Convention on Biological Diversity
Provisioning
Sustainability
Climate change
Environmental resource management
Ecosystem

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