Widespread societal and ecological impacts from projected Tibetan Plateau lake expansion

Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are expanding rapidly in response to climate change. The potential impact on the local environment if lake expansion continues remains uncertain. Here we integrate field surveys, remote sensing observations and numerical modelling to assess future changes in lake surface area, water level and water volume. We also assess the ensuing risks to critical infrastructure, human settlements and key ecosystem components. Our results suggest that by 2100, even under a low-emissions scenario, the surface area of endorheic lakes on the Tibetan Plateau will increase by over 50% (~20,000 km2) and water levels will rise by around 10 m relative to 2020. This expansion represents approximately a…

• SR
  Sight Research UK

  Awards: NE/T011246/1, NE/X019071/1
• NN
  National Natural Science Foundation of China

  Award: 41988101-03
• NE
  Natural Environment Research Council

  Awards: NE/X019071/1, NE/T011246/1