Estimated Burden of Metabolic Dysfunction–Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in US Adults, 2020 to 2050

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and is projected to become the leading indication for liver transplant (LT) in the US. Understanding its clinical burden can help to identify opportunities for prevention and treatment.

To project the burden of MASLD in US adults from 2020 to 2050. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical modeling study used an agent-based state transition model that simulates the natural history of MASLD progression among adults 18 years of age or older. Primary data sources for model inputs were the published literature. Exposure: Natural history of MASLD. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases of MASLD, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), fibrosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), LT, and liver-related death.