articleNature MedicineJan 27, 2025HYBRID OA

Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities

PMPierre MasselotMMMalcolm MistrySRShilpa RaoVHVeronika HuberAMAna Monteiro

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · Ca' Foscari University of Venice · +12 more institutions

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Abstract

Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we…

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Topics & keywords

Topics
Keywords
  • Climate change
  • Vulnerability (computing)
  • Mediterranean climate
  • Adaptation (eye)
  • Geography
  • Representative Concentration Pathways
  • Apparent temperature
  • Baseline (sea)
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Climate action
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