Global, regional, and national burdens of type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in adolescents from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2030: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021

Adolescent diabetes is one of the major public health problems worldwide. This study aims to estimate the burden of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in adolescents from 1990 to 2021, and to predict diabetes prevalence through 2030.

We extracted epidemiologic data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) on T1DM and T2DM among adolescents aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories worldwide. This study calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) in adolescents based on the world standard population for cross-country comparisons. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) in age-standardized rate were calculated by linkage point regression. Correlation analyses were used to identify the relationship between age-standardized rate and sociodemographic index (SDI). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict changes in the diabetes prevalence among adolescents from 2022 to 2030.