Perspective: Global Burden of Iodine Deficiency: Insights and Projections to 2050 Using XGBoost and SHAP

Iodine deficiency (ID) poses a significant global public health challenge. This study aimed to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021 and project future patterns ≤2050 using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), to identify key factors and inform public health strategies. Data on ID from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were used to model and predict its burden ≤2050 using XGBoost, with SHAP enhancing model interpretability. In 1990, global incident cases of ID were 7.51 million (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 126.11/100,000), rising to 8.08 million by 2021 (ASIR: 105.99/100,000, a 15.96% decrease), and projected to reach 8.48 million by 2050…

• NK
  National Key Research and Development Program of China

  Award: 2023YFC3041600