A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Bevacqua, Emanuele; Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich; Zscheischler, Jakob

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9

articleNature Climate ChangeFeb 10, 2025HYBRID OA

A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

EBEmanuele Bevacqua CSCarl‐Friedrich Schleussner JZJakob Zscheischler

Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research · International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis · +3 more institutions

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Abstract

Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

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Keywords

Period (music)
Limit (mathematics)
Earth (classical element)
Environmental science
Climatology
Atmospheric sciences
Earth science
Geology

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