A machine-learning-derived online prediction model for depression risk in COPD patients: A retrospective cohort study from CHARLS

Depression associated with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a detrimental complication that significantly impairs patients' quality of life. This study aims to develop an online predictive model to estimate the risk of depression in COPD patients.

This study included 2921 COPD patients from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), analyzing 36 behavioral, health, psychological, and socio-demographic indicators. LASSO regression filtered predictive factors, and six machine learning models-Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Multilayer Perceptron, LightGBM, XGBoost, and Random Forest-were applied to identify the best model for predicting depression risk in COPD patients. Temporal validation used 2013 CHARLS data. We developed a personalized, interpretable risk prediction platform using SHAP.