Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), vital for northwards heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean, is projected to weaken owing to global warming 1 , with significant global climate impacts 2 . However, the extent of AMOC weakening is uncertain with wide variation across climate models 1,3,4 and some statistical indicators suggesting an imminent collapse 5 . Here we show that the AMOC is resilient to extreme greenhouse gas and North Atlantic freshwater forcings across 34 climate models. Upwelling in the Southern Ocean, driven by persistent Southern Ocean winds, sustains a weakened AMOC in all cases, preventing its complete collapse. As Southern Ocean upwelling must be balanced by…