End-to-end data-driven weather prediction

Abstract Weather prediction is critical for a range of human activities, including transportation, agriculture and industry, as well as for the safety of the general public. Machine learning transforms numerical weather prediction (NWP) by replacing the numerical solver with neural networks, improving the speed and accuracy of the forecasting component of the prediction pipeline 1–6 . However, current models rely on numerical systems at initialization and to produce local forecasts, thereby limiting their achievable gains. Here we show that a single machine learning model can replace the entire NWP pipeline. Aardvark Weather, an end-to-end data-driven weather prediction system, ingests observations and…