The future of antibiotic use in livestock

Governments worldwide have pledged to reduce antimicrobial use in the agri-food system. This study projects global livestock antibiotic use quantities through 2040 under various scenarios. This work indicates that under a business-as-usual scenario, global antibiotic use could reach ~143,481 tons by 2040, representing a 29.5% increase from the 2019 baseline of ~110,777 tons. However, alternative scenarios suggest that these projections could vary by +14.2% to -56.8%, depending on changes in livestock biomass and antibiotic use intensity. A key contribution of this research is the development of the Livestock Biomass Conversion method, a novel indicator offering improved accuracy in estimating livestock…