Assessing the Validity of k-Fold Cross-Validation for Model Selection: Evidence from Bankruptcy Prediction Using Random Forest and XGBoost

Predicting corporate bankruptcy is a key task in financial risk management, and selecting a machine learning model with superior generalization performance is crucial for prediction accuracy. This study evaluates the effectiveness of k-fold cross-validation as a model selection strategy for random forest and XGBoost classifiers using a publicly available dataset of Taiwanese listed companies. We employ a nested cross-validation framework to assess the relationship between cross-validation (CV) and out-of-sample (OOS) performance on 40 different train/test data partitions. On average, we find k-fold cross-validation to be a valid selection technique when applied within a model class; however, k-fold…