Trend analysis and future predictions of global burden of alzheimer’s disease and other dementias: a study based on the global burden of disease database from 1990 to 2021

As the global aging issue grows, dementia, particularly Alzheimer's disease (AD), has become a major public health challenge for everyone. This study utilizes the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to analyze trends in the epidemiology of AD and other dementias from 1990 to 2021 and to predict future burdens to 2040.

We examined global, regional, and national data on AD and other dementias, focusing on incidence, prevalence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify significant changes in trends over time. The effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the risk of AD and other dementias were analyzed. Additionally, the impact of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes on DALYs was assessed across different Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles.