Estimated Burden of COVID-19 Illnesses, Medical Visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the US From October 2022 to September 2024

Since 2020, COVID-19 has dramatically impacted the US population and health care system. Reporting requirements, circulating variants, testing practices, and population immunity from vaccination and previous infections evolved as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed. Evidence-based public health policy and resource allocation decisions require current estimates of disease burden.

To estimate the age group-specific burden of COVID-19-associated illnesses, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the US from October 2022 to September 2024. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, adjusting for underdetection of SARS-CoV-2 due to testing practices and test sensitivity, was applied to hospitalization data from the population-based COVID-19 Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) database, which includes 89 counties and jurisdictional equivalents in 12 states covering approximately 10% of the US population. Data from 94 363 participants from October 2022 to September 2023 (surveillance period, 2022-2023) and from 72 176 participants from October 2023 to September 2024 (surveillance period, 2023-2024) were included, and probabilistic mathematical multiplier models estimated counts of deaths, outpatient visits, and symptomatic illnesses incorporating literature and study-based multipliers. Data were modeled from April 2024 to September 2025. Exposures: COVID-NET patients with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalization, defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within 14 days before or during hospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated national counts with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of outpatient visits, illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths by age group.