On misconceptions about the Brier score in binary prediction models

The Brier score is a widely used metric in epidemiological and clinical research for evaluating the accuracy of probabilistic predictions for binary outcomes, such as disease occurrence, treatment response, and screening performance. Despite its popularity, the Brier score is frequently misunderstood, leading to flawed interpretation of prediction models and potentially misguided public health and clinical decisions. This study aims to didactically clarify common misconceptions about realised Brier scores and to provide practical, statistically rigorous guidance for its correct interpretation in epidemiologic and public health prediction models. We analytically examined its statistical properties and conducted…