articleNature CommunicationsJan 7, 2026GOLD OA

Uncertainty-aware machine learning to predict non-cancer human toxicity for the global chemicals market

Technical University of Denmark · University of Cambridge · +5 more institutions

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Abstract

Humans are exposed to thousands of chemicals, yet limited toxicity data hinder effective management of their impacts on human health. High-performing machine learning models hold potential for addressing this gap, but their uncharacterized prediction performance across the wider range of chemicals undermines confidence in their results. We develop uncertainty-aware models to predict reproductive/developmental and general non-cancer human toxicity effect doses. Our well-calibrated models provide uncertainty estimates aligned with observed prediction errors and chemical familiarity. We predict toxicity with 95% confidence intervals for >100,000 globally marketed chemicals and identify toxicity and uncertainty…

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6

Topics & keywords

Keywords
  • Chemical toxicity
  • Human health
  • Transparency (behavior)
  • Risk assessment
  • Predictive modelling
  • Range (aeronautics)
UN Sustainable Development Goals
  • Gender equality
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